From Informacion Covid-19 Almeria
On the figures posted each day questions have been asked how they are produced. These are the most frequently asked questions:
In recent days, many of you are asking about some of the data that appears in the tables and how it is reflected and I would like to solve them here in a general way for those who do not know it or find it interesting:
1. Why don't the recovered X site appear if I know of people who have already recovered and you don't put them?
When a new or recovered infection is notified, a series of patient follow-up files must be filled out. During the strong phase of a wave, the efforts of doctors are focused on notifying new infections more than those recovered because that value is the one used to obtain the accumulated incidence and to know the level of transmission of a population, for so the notification of recovered begins to suffer delays. When the wave begins to stabilize, all those recovered begin to appear and it can be seen how populations that have not had recovered in days of shock appear with a large number. It is not because they have recovered suddenly, but because the Junta has notified them officially.
2. If the Junta does not notify these infections, does the incidence not decrease?
There is no relationship between active cases and the cumulative incidence in the last 14 days. Active cases indicate the number of people who are supposedly affected by the virus right now in the population. The incidence is calculated by taking the number of new infections that have occurred in the population in the last 14 days and seeing how many would have been then if instead of X population it had had 100,000. Therefore, we can see how, for example, the number of active cases increases and the incidence decreases since that means that although there are more infections than recovered, the number of new infections is less than that of 14 days ago and if that trend continues it would mean that the population is in a decline phase or that the incidence remains the same. There are also populations that, although they have active cases, have 0 incidence and it is because more than 14 days have passed since the last contagion was reported.
3. So, is active cases or incidence more reliable?
It depends on the pandemic situation in which we find ourselves. If we are in a low phase of contagion, active cases. If we are in a high phase of contagion, the incidence. Why? As I have mentioned, the issue of the recovered. If there are notification delays, the number of cases may be less than that reflected, but even if it was less if the incidence is very high, it still means that the risk of transmission is very high or vice versa, even if there is a very high number of active cases. if the incidence is very very small or 0, the risk of transmission is very small, although care should always be taken.
4. In my town there are not as many infected as you indicate.
These data are extracted from the official reports published by the Andalusian Regional Government's Ministry of Health and Families.When assigning a case to a municipality, it is done through the patient's registry, that is, if a patient lives in Berja but his registry is in El Ejido, the case will be assigned to El Ejido because it is according to his papers "where he usually resides" although later the reference medical service was Berja's.
5. Is the list of active cases that you indicate the cases since the beginning of the pandemic, what are they now or only those of the last 14 days?
Cases that are supposedly active. Every two weeks or so during the weekend, I usually give more information by district indicating the number of total cases that have occurred since the start of the pandemic but on a daily basis, I only give those that are active.
6. I am looking at the official report of the Junta and the values that appear are different from yours. The incidence coincides but not the cases.
In the report that you usually tell me, the infections of the last 14 days appear, not the really active cases. The value that appears in that report is the one used to calculate the incidence, but it is different from what I indicate in the tables.
7. When are the restrictions by municipalities updated?
The assessment meetings are on Mondays and Thursdays, so the decisions to restrict stocks will be made from what appears on those days, regardless of the other days. The restrictions listed on Monday go into effect at dawn on Tuesday on Wednesday. Thursday morning at dawn from Friday to Saturday.
